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【英文】瑞信报告:全球股票策略:新冠疫情的长期影响(109页)

英文研究报告 2020-05-19 21 管理员

Moreover, we think we are likely to get a redistribution of income to the poor (e.g. higher  minimum wages) and the poor tend to have a savings ratio that is very low while the wealthy  (who will be disproportionately taxed) have a very high savings ratio and this could therefore  counter any rise in the savings ratio. We also think that into a recovery, fiscal easing is likely to  favour schemes that focus on direct spending (e.g. vouchers with expiration dates to drive  immediate consumption). Investment tends to recover when capacity utilisation troughs and GDP growth is  above 2% Importantly, it does not require capacity utilisation to return to average levels for investment to  pick up.

The steps above are targeted to preserve the prospect of a V-shaped bounce-back by keeping  firms in business. For GDP to return to its previous trend will require ongoing monetary and  fiscal support even after the level of GDP seen at the end of 2019 has been reached.  On the monetary side, we strongly believe that central banks will not only allow an inflationary  overshoot, but increasingly target such an outcome. After all, even before the pandemic broke  out, the Fed was undertaking an annual review of its inflation target, with serious consideration  being given to a ‘make-up’ strategy, in which any inflation shortfall should be made up with a  subsequent inflation overshoot, as well as potentially even raising the inflation target. The ECB  was also set to undergo its first formal policy review in November. The big debate in our view is around what happens to fiscal policy. If we look at the aftermath of  the GFC, fiscal policy was quickly tightened if we look at the US or DM, diminishing the policy  support for growth significantly.

【英文】瑞信报告:全球股票策略:新冠疫情的长期影响(109页)

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