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【英文】2020年全球风险报告(102页)

英文研究报告 2020-01-21 25 管理员

The world cannot wait for the fog of  geopolitical and geo-economic uncertainty  to lift. Opting to ride out the current period  in the hope that the global system will  “snap back” runs the risk of missing crucial  windows to address pressing challenges.  On key issues such as the economy, the  environment, technology and public health,  stakeholders must fnd ways to act quickly  and with purpose within an unsettled global  landscape. This is the context in which the  World Economic Forum publishes the 15th edition of the Global Risks Report. An unsettled world Powerful economic, demographic and  technological forces are shaping a new  balance of power. The result is an unsettled  geopolitical landscape—one in which  states are increasingly viewing opportunities  and challenges through unilateral lenses.  What were once givens regarding alliance  structures and multilateral systems no  longer hold as states question the value  of long-standing frameworks, adopt  more nationalist postures in pursuit  of individual agendas and weigh the  potential geopolitical consequences of  economic decoupling.

Beyond the risk of confict, if stakeholders  concentrate on immediate geostrategic  advantage and fail to reimagine or adapt  mechanisms for coordination during this  unsettled period, opportunities for action  on key priorities may slip away. Risks to economic stability  and social cohesion Recent editions of the Global Risks Report warned of downward pressure on the  global economy from macroeconomic  fragilities and fnancial inequality. These  pressures continued to intensify in 2019,  increasing the risk of economic stagnation.  Low trade barriers, fscal prudence and  strong global investment—once seen as  fundamentals for economic growth—are  fraying as leaders advance nationalist  policies. The margins for monetary and  fscal stimuli are also narrower than  before the 2008–2009 fnancial crisis,  creating uncertainty about how well  countercyclical policies will work. A  challenging economic climate may  persist this year: according to the Global  Risks Perception Survey, members of the  multistakeholder community see “economic  confrontations” and “domestic political  polarization” as the top risks in 2020. Amid this darkening economic outlook,  citizens’ discontent has hardened with  systems that have failed to promote  advancement. Disapproval of how  governments are addressing profound  economic and social issues has sparked  protests throughout the world, potentially  weakening the ability of governments to  take decisive action should a downturn  occur. Without economic and social  stability, countries could lack the fnancial  resources, fscal margin, political capital  or social support needed to confront key  global risks.

【英文】2020年全球风险报告(102页)

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