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【英文】摩根士丹利报告:全球科技业:数据时代颠覆了供应链Global Technology The Data Era Disrupts the M Supply Chain(60页)

英文研究报告 2019年12月20日 07:41 管理员

Our framework uses qualitative and quantitative analysis to identify 18 technology supply  chain companies that look well positioned, and 18 companies that look challenged out of 150 global supply chain companies under coverage.  Further, we highlight 5 of the clearest supply chain companies that look particularly well-positioned or potentially challenged to transition for  the Data Era including Broadcom, Murata, and Foxconn as well positioned companies and Nissha and Visonox as potentially challenged  companies. However, it’s important to note we are in the very early innings of Data Era and companies can evolve to meet new demand in the  Data Era. Our framework is a roadmap which we believe can spur investor discussion and help companies improve their positioning over the  next several years.

Our framework assesses how well companies are positioned to sustain competitive advantage and leadership in the Data Era. As the  new, enterprise-centric cycle unfolds, supply chain companies face two major challenges. First, they’re highly dependent on consumer-oriented  PC and smartphone sales, which represent roughly 40% of revenues for the ten largest component suppliers globally and nearly 55% in Greater  China. Second, they need to diversify their manufacturing platforms to combat tariffs, and suppliers with a manufacturing footprint concentrated in China may face margin pressure as they shift to higher-cost locations.

For the quant model, 12 of our global technology analysts identified the financial metrics that signal business reinvestment  can drive a competitive advantage in the next cycle. The five  measures they agreed on were: (1) R&D/sales, (2) CapEx/sales, (3)  gross margin, (4) sales growth Y/Y and (5) ROIT, or net income/ R&D + CapEx. l The analysts collaborated to identify qualitative success factors that should sustain a competitive edge. Their discussion  zeroed in on one structural and two key strategic criteria:  1. Market dominance. Structurally high barriers to entry, like  wafer fab costs, IP, or scale can anchor competitive leadership.  2. Diversification. Companies benefit from strategic decisions  to move into market adjacencies, and therefore aren't afraid  of cannibalization. Our analysts see diversification encompassing products, the customer base, and/or the manufacturing footprint, especially expanding capabilities to deliver  Data Era solutions including AI/ML, IoT, and cloud data center  infrastructure. We note that some financial metrics tie into  our qualitative factors: companies that look to diversify revenue have higher R&D and/or capex intensity. 3. Pricing premium. Pricing power often depends on a strategic  vision to bring differentiated products to market, e.g. the  sensor, camera, and connectivity capabilities that have led in  the Mobile Internet era. Premium pricing also enables repetition of the cycle with profits for continued re-investment  which allows for greater IP or scale to dominate a market and/ or to diversify products. Again, pricing drives higher gross  margin, a quant metric, as we explore in the case study on  Apple suppliers.

【英文】摩根士丹利报告:全球科技业:数据时代颠覆了供应链Global Technology The Data Era Disrupts the  M Supply Chain(60页)

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资源名称:【英文】摩根士丹利报告:全球科技业:数据时代颠覆了供应链Global Technology The Data Era Disrupts the  M Supply Chain(60页)


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