【英文】2019年排放差距报告Emissions Gap Report 2019（108P）

There is no sign of GHG emissions peaking in the  next few years; every year of postponed peaking  means that deeper and faster cuts will be required.  By 2030, emissions would need to be 25 per cent  and 55 per cent lower than in 2018 to put the  world on the least-cost pathway to limiting global  warming to below 2˚C and 1.5°C respectively.  Figure ES.1 shows a decomposition of the average  annual growth rates of economic activity (gross  domestic product – GDP), primary energy use,  energy use per unit of GDP, CO2 emissions per unit  of energy and GHG emissions from all sources  for Organisation for Economic Co-operation and  Development (OECD) and non-OECD members.   Economic growth has been much stronger in  non-OECD members, growing at over 4.5 per cent  per year in the last decade compared with 2 per  cent per year in OECD members. Since OECD and  non-OECD members have had similar declines in  the amount of energy used per unit of economic  activity, stronger economic growth means that  primary energy use has increased much faster in  non-OECD members (2.8 per cent per year) than in  OECD members (0.3 per cent per year).   OECD members already use less energy per unit  of economic activity, which suggests that nonOECD members have the potential to accelerate  improvements even as they grow, industrialize  and urbanize their economies in order to meet  development objectives.

While the global data provide valuable insight for  understanding the continued growth in emissions,  it is necessary to examine the trends of major  emitters to gain a clearer picture of the underlying  trends (figure ES.2). Country rankings change  dramatically when comparing total and per capita  emissions: for example, it is evident that China now  has per capita emissions in the same range as the  European Union (EU) and is almost at a similar level  to Japan. Consumption-based emission estimates, also  known as a carbon footprint, that adjust the  standard territorial emissions for imports and  exports, provide policymakers with a deeper  insight into the role of consumption, trade and  the interconnectedness of countries. Figure ES.3  shows that the net flow of embodied carbon is  from developing to developed countries, even  as developed countries reduce their territorial  emissions this effect is being partially offset by  importing embodied carbon, implying for example  that EU per capita emissions are higher than  Chinese when consumption-based emissions are  included. It should be noted that consumptionbased emissions are not used within the context  of the United Nations Framework Convention on  Climate Change (UNFCCC).