【英文】世界银行报告：大宗商品市场展望Commodity Markets Outlook（94P）

The Special  Focus also provides empirical evidence for  substitution between individual energy and metal  commodities by examining the response of  demand for a single commodity (e.g., copper) to  the prices of its known substitutes (e.g.,  aluminum).  Box: The impact of the September 14 strike  on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure  The September 14 strike on Saudi Arabia’s oil  facilities temporarily halved the country’s  production capacity—about 6 percent of global  supply. Brent futures gained nearly 15 percent on  the first trading day following the attack, their  largest one-day increase. However, by the end of  September, prices had returned to pre-attack levels  as Saudi Arabia swiftly restored production. The  backdrop of slowing demand also helped contain  prices. Long-term futures prices are also  unchanged, suggesting either geopolitical risk  plays less of a role in risk premium of oil prices, that oil supplies have become more diversified  (reducing risks associated with disruptions), or  that other fundamental factors such as weaker  global growth are weighing on oil prices. Despite  their limited impact, the attacks highlight the oil market’s dependence on critical infrastructure and  transport bottlenecks that could be vulnerable to  disruption.

Consumption of non-renewable resources surged  over the past two decades, notably as a result of  strong growth in emerging markets and  developing economies (EMDEs). The surge was  pronounced in metals, where consumption grew  150 percent during this period (Figure SF.1) This  increase was driven by China, whose share of  world metals consumption reached 50 percent in  2015, up from 10 percent two decades earlier.  Similar increases took place in coal consumption,  driven by China and India (World Bank 2018).  As in earlier booms, high commodity prices  induced investment and innovation on the supply  side as well as efficiency gains, substitution, and  reduced consumption on the demand side.  As a result, commodity prices fell—non-energy  prices in a smooth decline since 2011 and crude  oil prices in a steep plunge in 2014. This created  concerns about the challenges posed by  low commodity prices for commodity exporting  countries, and about suitable policies for  addressing them (Baffes et al. 2015; Christensen  2016).

Meanwhile, discussions intensified regarding environmental concerns about the sustainability of production and consumption of  certain commodities. Such concerns include the  consequences of climate change, air and water  pollution, and plastic waste.  The relationship between commodity consumption, income growth, and commodity prices has  typically been studied from a single commodity  perspective. In an earlier Focus (October 2018  edition of the Commodity Markets Outlook), such a  relationship was studied by applying the same  modeling framework to several individual energy  and metal commodities. This analysis expanded  on existing literature by explicitly accounting for a  “plateauing effect” on commodity consumption,  i.e., a level of income at which per capita  consumption no longer grows. In this Focus, we  extend the analysis further by accounting for  substitution among commodities through the  inclusions of cross-price effects—an area of  research that has not been explored widely for  industrial commodities. Specifically, the Focus addresses the following questions: (1) How has  substitution in commodity demand evolved? (2)  What is the empirical evidence of substitution in  commodity consumption?