China’s financing and investment spread across 61 BRI countries in 2023 (up...
2024-02-27 31 英文报告下载
The sustainability of premiumization is a key investor debate, with China premium beauty share rapidly expanding from 23% a decade ago to 36% in 2018. • With major prestige brands’ embracing online channel, improving brand recognition as well as consumer reach should drive further strong growth for premium segment. Perhaps counterintuitively, larger companies are winning in China beauty, gaining share vs. our 2016 survey and a reversal from our survey work in the prior few years. We believe that this is a function of the digital flywheel driving desirability.
Our demand model forecasts a 13% CAGR in the next three years in Chinese consumers' beauty spending based on: 1) Chinese spending forecasts, using both domestic and overseas demand; 2) important trends in the sector; 3) companylevel market share analysis; and 4) the results of our AlphaWise survey.We believe LGHH is one of the key beneficiaries of the premiumization in the China Beauty market on the back of its portfolio skew to the premium segment. • We expect the company's prestige brand sales to show a 32% CAGR 2019-21e, and its share in that segment to increase from its current 3.4% to 4.3% in 2021e. • Current valuation of LGHH at 2020e P/E 22x looks very attractive, below 1 standard deviation of historical average vs. its 14% EPS CAGR over the next three years.
We believe Amorepacific is poorly positioned within mass brands and low premium exposure. • Ample downside risk in consensus earnings (MSe 11-20% below consensus for 2019-20e) could weigh on valuations near term. • While its prestige brand, Sulwhasoo, appears to be underutilized in China, its mass brands show weakening momentum, competing with local brands main mass brands.Domestic brands are winning customers in the mass segment: According to our AlphaWise survey, the use of local brands in the mass segment rose from 33% in 2016 to 48% in 2019. We think the improvement is primarily driven by: 1) the improving product quality of domestic brands with increasing R&D spending and 2) an effective marketing strategy in e-commerce and H&B channels. Domestic brands have achieved a 14% sales CAGR, while foreign brands have only risen at a 3% CAGR in 2014-18. Domestic brands accounted for 64% of sales in the mass segment in 2018, up from 58% in 2014.
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