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【英文】2019年世界白银调查报告 WORLD SILVER SURVEY 2019(105P)

英文研究报告 2019-08-29 13 管理员

In the silver market, as for any commodity, physical  imbalances both explain and influence price action,  physical premia, margins, and logistical areas such  as lead times and scrap recycling patterns. Silver is  no exception; indeed it also attracts varying attention  from the investment and speculative fraternities with,  for example, ETP total holdings shifting from modest  inflows in 2017 to a 3% decline to 649.5 Moz (20,203 t)  in 2018, while bar and coin consumption jumped by  over 20% to 181.2 Moz (5,637 t).  In addition to physical investment, and in order to deal  with risk and price management, silver also has a very  active Over-The-Counter (OTC) market, in which (a  broad rule of thumb is) that LBMA loco London volumes  are approximately twice the London Bullion Market  Association (LBMA) published transfer numbers.

In  order to estimate the global OTC volume we assume  that loco London now accounts for approximately 70%  of the total.  Taking this into consideration, silver implied OTC  transactions in 2018 increased for a sixth consecutive  year, rising by 2% to 165 bn ounces (4,852,142 t). At  that level, global OTC transactions are estimated to  be approximately on par with the last peak recorded  in 1997, the year when the LBMA started making its  data publicly available. As a result of the weaker silver  price last year the notional value fell 6% year-on-year  to $2.6 tr. Indeed our full assessment of the impact of  investment flows can be found in Chapter 3.  A further element that differentiates silver from  purely industrial metals is that it is held as an aboveground asset by private and institutional investors,  users, dealers, banks, and other entities. Increases or  decreases in these stocks (whether accumulations or  sales into terminal markets) can be both price takers  and price makers. Indeed, old jewelry scrap, coins and  bars make up a significant part of the scrap pool (and  they are arguably the truly price-sensitive elements in  the whole silver market) as opposed to scrap collected  from recycled electronics, for example.

【英文】2019年世界白银调查报告 WORLD SILVER  SURVEY 2019(105P)

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资源名称:【英文】2019年世界白银调查报告 WORLD SILVER  SURVEY 2019(105P)


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