Economic activity declined slightly on average, employment was roughly flat...
2024-02-07 53 英文报告下载
The global economy has outperformed even our optimistic expectations in 2023. As Exhibit 1 shows, we now estimate that global GDP will grow 2.7% this year, 1pp above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of a year ago. The United States is on track for growth of 2.4%, a full 2pp above the consensus forecast of a year ago. The surprises elsewhere are generally smaller, but we do expect beats in 88% of the economies under our coverage on a GDP-weighted basis.Solid GDP growth has translated into more-than-solid labor market performance. Exhibit 2 shows that the unemployment rate across all economies under our coverage that produce high-quality labor market data continued to edge down in 2022-2023 and now stands about ½pp below its pre-pandemic level. Importantly, this improvement is visible even in some key economies that have seen very low real GDP growth, such as the Euro area.These positive surprises came despite several unexpected negative shocks. First, both short-term and long-term interest rates rose significantly further than implied by market pricing—partly due to better-than-expected growth data but also partly due to more hawkish central bank reaction functions, at least early in the year. Second, there was a brief but serious bout of banking sector instability in the US and Europe during the spring. And third, the Israel-Hamas war is a sobering reminder of the growing security risks facing the world order, although so far it has not had a major impact on oil prices, financial markets, or the real economy outside the Middle East. But in an important way, even these observations still understate the amount of good news that 2023 has delivered. Not only have growth and employment surprised to the upside in the face of several negative shocks, but all this has occurred alongside much lower inflation across all economies that saw a large and unwanted post-pandemic price surge in 2021-2022.