Focusing on the prospects for 2024, global growth is likely to come i...
2024-02-21 39 英文报告下载
China’s decarbonization efforts boosted growth in new energy vehicle (NEV), battery and renewable energy sectors. These sectors are often referred to as the “New Three” of the Chinese economy, which highlights their significance in policymakers’ pursuit of “high-quality growth”, explains their exponential growth in recent years, and suggests their increasing importance to the overall economy in future years. Our analysis suggests that the “New Three” could only partially offset the drag on growth from the property downcycles (including both through property investment and upstream sectors, and also through real estate services, fiscal and consumption channels).
The impact on real GDP growth (from expanding “New Three” but a shrinking property sector and declining traditional vehicle production) is -0.5pp per year from 2023-2027 based on our estimates, with the drag being most negative this year and fading gradually towards -0.2 in 2027. Although these sectors are often discussed together, the channels through which they contribute to the Chinese economy differ somewhat. Renewable energy involves large investment in wind and solar power generation, which mostly adds to GDP growth through investment induced production across upstream sectors. NEV and battery production are playing increasingly important roles in the total production chain of the economy. Exhibit 1 showed the rapid growth of NEV and battery production, and wind/solar power generation capacity in recent years.