【英文】IMF报告：世界经济展望：漫长而艰难的上升（203页）

Production of a safe, effective vaccine would prevail  over all other upside risk factors. If produced at the  needed scale and distributed worldwide at affordable prices, such a vaccine would lift sentiment and  yield better growth outcomes than in the baseline,  including by allowing for a fuller recovery in  contact-intensive sectors and travel. Some of these  aspects are featured in Scenario Box 1, which presents growth projections under alternative scenarios. Downside risks, however, remain signifcant. Tey  include the following: • Outbreaks could recur in places. If the virus resurges,  and progress on treatments and vaccines is slower  than anticipated or countries’ access to them  remains unequal, economic activity could be lower  than expected, with renewed social distancing and  tighter lockdowns. Cross-border spillovers from  weaker external demand could further magnify the  impact of country- or region-specific shocks on  global growth. • Premature withdrawal of policy support, or poor targeting of measures because of design and implementation challenges, could lead to the dissolution of  otherwise viable and productive economic relationships, exacerbating misallocation. • Financial conditions may again tighten, as in March,  exposing vulnerabilities. A sudden stop in new lending (or failure to roll over existing debt) would tip  some economies into debt crises and slow activity  further. 

 Liquidity shortfalls and insolvencies. Deep recessions  invariably entail widespread liquidity shortfalls as  firms suffer immediate revenue losses but still have  to meet payroll expenses, cover fixed costs, and  fulfill debt service obligations. Prolonged liquidity  shortfalls can readily translate into bankruptcies and  firm closures. This time around, there have been a  few prominent bankruptcies, for example in retail  and rental car sectors, and the rate of corporate  bond defaults more broadly is at its highest since  the global financial crisis (June 2020 GFSR Update).  However, the aggressive and swift policy countermeasures have so far likely prevented even more  widespread bankruptcies. But considering the severity of the recession and the possible withdrawal of  some of the emergency support in some countries,  the risk of a wider cross-section of firms experiencing deep liquidity shortfalls and bankruptcies is  tangible (Box 1.3). Such events would lead to large  job and income losses, further weakening demand.  At the same time, they would deplete bank capital  buffers and constrain credit supply, compounding  the downturn. Intensifying social unrest. Instances of social unrest  increased globally in 2019 before declining during  the early part of the pandemic (Box 1.4). While  ultimate causes vary across countries, in many cases,  these include declining trust in established institutions and lack of representation in governance  structures, as well as a perceived disconnect between  leaders’ priorities and the problems faced by the  public. In June, social unrest increased in the United  States and quickly spread worldwide in protests  against institutional racism and racial inequality.