【英文】摩根士丹利报告：全球宏观策略：进化，而不是革命（103页）

Nevertheless, in order to assess how the new monetary policy strategy shifts the odds of achieving, then sustaining,2 percent PCE inflation, it mighthelp to start with the probability of achieving that outcome in the absence of any strategy change. To aid in this effort, we calculated empirical probabilities for various headline and core PCE inflation outcomes based on the distribution outcomes in the past Exhibit 1 and Exhibit 2show the empirical probabilities thatheadline and core PCE inflation average >=2% for a 1- to 3-year period of time,given the history of realized inflation from a given starting decade through June 2020. For example, if you use historical headline PCE inflation data starting in the early 1960s through June 2020,you would conclude that there is a 66% probability thatheadline PCE inflation would annualize at 2% or greater over a multi-year period (see Exhibit 3for the probability density functions, or PDFs). However, if you used data since the early 2000s through June 2020,you would conclude that there is only a 35% probability of headline PCE inflation annualizing at 2% or greater (see Exhibit 4 for the PDFs).

Even more dramatic,as Exhibit 2suggests, the empirical probability of core PCE inflation achieving 2% and remaining at that rate or higher fell more steadily over the past four decades. Data from early 2000 through June 2020 suggest that core PCE inflation has only a 12% probability of averaging >=2% over a 3-year period. The results of this empirical study are intuitive,given the steady decline in PCE inflation over the past several decades, but interestingnevertheless. The empirical probability of achieving 2% inflation has fallen,and the probability of sustaining inflation at or above 2% has fallen even more. These data make it immediately clear why the Fed feels compelled to revamp its monetary policy strategy. Whatever changes Fed makes to its monetary policy strategy, it must convince investors and the public alike that the probability of achieving and sustaining 2 percent inflation is higher than empirical probabilities from the past 20 years suggest. This is no easy task, given the global economy looks most like it did in 2010 than in 1970.