【英文】哈佛大学报告：中国的氢经济即将到来吗（48页）

On the other hand, the month of June 2019 saw a jump in sales as consumers made purchases before possible price increases came into efect, as  a result of the government's announcement. Tis even if EV makers will  probably continue to prioritize volumes and market share over proftability,  hence retail prices will likely remain at a similar level. Te Chinese government began introducing subsidies promoting vehicle  electrifcation in 2010, driven largely by the need to reduce air pollution  in the country’s urban centers. Tis was only partly successful because the  full environmental beneft of electrifcation can only be harnessed if electricity is produced from carbon-free sources and not from fossil fuel-based  generation. In which case emissions simply transfer from vehicle combustion engines to coal plants, with insufcient or even negative impact on  emissions.

Te Chinese government has also set aggressive goals for the deployment  of FCEVs and the associated enabling infrastructure: hydrogen fueling  stations. In 2017, China had approximately 1,200 FCEVs and less than 20  hydrogen fueling stations, ranking behind the United States, Japan, Germany and South Korea.8 Te government now aims to have 5,000 FCEVs  on the road by 2020; 50,000 by 2025; and one million by 2030. Guided by  the target of one fueling station for every 1,000 vehicles, China plans to  have 100 stations by 2020; 300 by 2025; and 1000 by 20309 (see Figure 2).  In comparison in the United States there are currently 41 fueling stations  with 36 more being built, mainly in the state of California.

To reap renewable hydrogen’s full environmental benefts, hydrogen must  be produced from zero carbon sources like renewables and/or nuclear  energy. While hydrogen burns cleanly as fuel at its point of use, if produced  from fossil fuels the net result would only be to relocate emissions from  one area of the country to another.  Our research focuses on the prouction of renewable hydrogen through  water electrolysis, an electrochemical process that splits water into hydrogen and oxygen. Electrolysis currently accounts for less than 3% of global  hydrogen production (and less than 1% of dedicated production). Yet there  are signifcant opportunities for growth, especially in China, if surplus  electricity from renewables and/or nuclear becomes more available and  production costs decrease.